After less than 6 months as part of the eight party alliance government, the Maoists pulled out on Tuesday in protest against the failure to agree their 22 demands for changes prior to the elections in November. Their headline demand is that a republic be declared and the King sent packing before the election takes place. Most political parties now support a republic but the whole point of the Constituent Assembly elections is that major constitutional changes such as this are taken by a democratically elected body rather than an unelected Interim Government or Parliament. There are mixed messages coming from the Maoist about their support for the elections and they have a programme of rallies coming up culminating in a national strike 4-6 October. There doesn't seem much concern that this move marks the end of the peace process so I guess everyone thinks it is a negotiating ploy by the Maoists. Who knows? Probably not even their leaders who are having to deal with internal conflict from elements that had been persuaded to give up the armed struggle in favour of gaining power democratically only to find that they haven't got much power and, at best, will have to share it with other parties after the elections. [Slight sense of urgency injected into my writing now as our Sunday/Monday load shedding has started so I've got about an hour to get these blogs finished, posted and photos uploaded. And I'm typing by candlelight – I'm sure it wasn't dark last week at 6pm]
The drama of this political move was immediately overtaken by the more pressing problem of taxi drivers protesting against fuel shortages by blocking some major roads in Kathmandu. I must have explained the background when we had the last fuel protests but a quick recap. Nepal Oil Corporation (government owned) buys all of Nepal's oil requirements (petrol, diesel and cooking gas) from the Indian Oil Company (government owned). The problem is that world oil prices have risen but domestic prices have not so NOC's buying price is higher than its selling price (not a good business model) and it ran out of money ages ago. The government won't put up fuel prices (riots last time they tried and not a good political move to make 2 months before the elections) so every month there is a loss to pay for plus a bit more to reduce the hefty arrears owed to India. Things have stumbled along for months like this with the Indians being told "don't worry the cheques in the post" until they get fed up at not getting the promised money and cut off supplies. It sounds as if the government's solution is to ask those nice Indian politicians in Delhi to instruct their minions at the IOC to keep supplying fuel even if they don't get paid. Commercially, this is a joke so it's down to politics. The Election Commission pointing out that fuel is needed for all of the election processes may swing things. Funny I seem to remember 11 or 12 years ago the Indian Oil Company being in exactly the same situation, I wonder whether this will make them more or less sympathetic?
Further depressing news last week was of violence in Kapilvastu, a border town in the south west, which has resulted in about 20 deaths and houses and vehicles (including a World Food Programme lorry carrying emergency food supplies to flood victims) being torched. The violence started with a local politician being murdered and then got out of hand with the police taking little or no action. This highlights the real challenge to holding the elections, basic law and order. There is a great risk that in the South, political rallies and electioneering will degenerate into violence which the police are unable or unwilling to control or if they do intervene it will be with more violence. And of course for anyone who wants to prevent the elections (I guess that's monarchists, maybe some Maoists or anyone who thinks they will lose power) stirring up trouble is their best chance of success. We have an interesting couple of months coming up, hope its not going to be too disruptive for our various visitors
[at this stage I gave up trying to type and took a break for a candlelit supper – including ice cream and a yummy chocolate sauce, thanks to Josie for sending the cooking choc]
Enough serious stuff, next posting will be just trivia.
Cheers
Roshan
P.S. On the fuel front I do feel a bit guilty to contributing to the shortage by buying a new cooking gas cylinder a couple of weeks ago although we still have probably a month or so left in the old one. Does this make me a hoarder? I like to justify it as prudent advance planning bearing in mind that we have festival season coming up (lots of cooking) and I am only accelerating the purchase by a month or 2. I'm keeping my conscience clear by promising to give my old bottle to anyone I know who is completely out of gas.
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